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GDP. For cargo demand forecast, IATA Consulting adopted multiple linear regression based on Hong Kong and global GDP. Despite the global economic slowdown and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2001-2003, Hong Kong’s GDP experienced an increase by almost 4% per annum between 2004 and 2009. Following the recovery from the global financial crisis and economic downturn in 2008-2009, the Government estimated 6.5% GDP growth for 20102. On the basis of input from Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)3 of July 2009 and Global Insight4 (July 2009), IATA Consulting compiled the following GDP forecast between 2008 and 2030 – (a) Hong Kong’s GDP will grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.2%; (b) Mainland’s GDP will grow at a CAGR of 7%; and (c) The global economy will grow at a CAGR of 4%.
Figure
3.2
16 12 8 4 0 -4
Global Air Traffic versus Economic Growth
Global GDP (year-on-year growth percent) 8 6 4 2 0 -2
Global Revenue Passenger Kilometres (year-on-year growth percent)
3
AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007 2006 2007 2007
Source: Traffic data from International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and International Air Transport Association (IATA), GDP data from International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Figure
3.3
Comparison between Actual and Derived HKIA Passenger Traffic Based on Hong Kong GDP
millions of passengers 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2008 SARS Outbreak
Actual
Derived
Source: Airport Authority Hong Kong (AAHK) traffic data, IATA Consulting estimates
2 3
HKSAR Government, November 2010. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is the world’s leading resource for economic and business research, forecasting and analysis. Founded in 1946 as an in-house research unit for The Economist, it now delivers trusted business intelligence and advice to over 1.5 million decision-makers from the world’s leading companies, financial institutions, governments and universities. Global Insight was founded in 2001 through the merger of Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates and Data Resources, Inc. In October 2008, Global Insight became part of the Information Handling Services (IHS) family. Based in the New England Region in the US, IHS Global Insight provides comprehensive economic, financial, and political country and industry intelligence products to support planning and decision making.
Figure
3.4
Comparison between Actual and Derived HKIA Cargo Traffic Based on Hong Kong GDP and Global GDP
millions of tonnes 4
3
4
2 9/11 Event
1
0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Actual
Derived
Source: AAHK traffic data, IATA Consulting estimates
HKIA MASTER PLAN 2030
2010
15
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