- Page 1
- Page 2 - Page 3 - Page 4 - Page 5 - Page 6 - Page 7 - Page 8 - Page 9 - Page 10 - Page 11 - Page 12 - Page 13 - Page 14 - Page 15 - Page 16 - Page 17 - Page 18 - Page 19 - Page 20 - Page 21 - Page 22 - Page 23 - Page 24 - Page 25 - Page 26 - Page 27 - Page 28 - Page 29 - Page 30 - Page 31 - Page 32 - Page 33 - Page 34 - Page 35 - Page 36 - Page 37 - Page 38 - Page 39 - Page 40 - Page 41 - Page 42 - Page 43 - Page 44 - Page 45 - Page 46 - Page 47 - Page 48 - Page 49 - Page 50 - Page 51 - Page 52 - Page 53 - Page 54 - Page 55 - Page 56 - Page 57 - Page 58 - Page 59 - Page 60 - Page 61 - Page 62 - Page 63 - Page 64 - Flash version © UniFlip.com |
set out on page 46, the forecast profits for the period from 2013 to 2030 under Option 2 will amount to HK$102.7 billion after depreciation charges of HK$87.2 billion and increase in working capital of HK$4.6 billion. In the same period, capital expenditure on committed capital projects and routine replacement of fixed assets will amount to HK$83.0 billion. On the basis of the previous practice of payment of approximately 80% of the profits of the preceding years by way of dividends, which will amount to HK$78.9 billion, the net cashflow after dividend is forecast to amount to HK$23.4 billion (representing HK$102.7 + HK$87.2 – HK$4.6 – HK$83.0 – HK$78.9 billion). When comparing the cash outflow required for the capital expenditure with the net cashflow after dividend, it is clear that there would be a funding shortfall for most of the years between 2013 and 2030, with the exception of a few years beyond 2025. The funding shortfall is also much bigger than that of Option 1. The annual funding shortfall is shown in Figure 7.11 and the total funding shortfall would peak at HK$112.8 billion in 2030 (see Appendix 2 for details). A similar approach to debt sizing has been adopted in Option 2 as for Option 1, resulting in a net additional borrowing capacity of approximately HK$17.0 billion. After allowing for the related interest cost over a slightly longer period, the net incremental cashflow available from borrowings would amount to approximately HK$11.0 billion under Option 2. This amount would not be sufficient to meet the funding shortfall as shown in Figure 7.12.
7.10
5 4 3 2 1 0 (1) (2) (3) 2013
Figure
Option 2 – Annual Net Cashflow after Dividend
in HK$ billion
HK$23.4 Billion Cumulative Net Cashflow after Dividend
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029 2026
Positive Net Cashflow after Dividend
Negative Net Cashflow after Dividend
7.11
(16) (14) (12) (10) (8) (6) (4) (2) 0 2 2013
Figure
Option 2 – Annual Funding Shortfall/Surplus
Maximum funding shortfall after dividend, peaking in 2030 (HK$112.8 Billion)
in HK$ billion
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2027
2030 2028
2029
Annual Funding Shortfall
Annual Funding Surplus
7.12
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2013
Figure
Option 2 – Cumulative Funding Shortfall after Debt Financing
HK$112.8 Billion Pre-financing Funding Shortfall
2030
7
COMPARISON BETWEEN THE TWO OPTIONS
in HK$ billion
About HK$102 Billion Cumulative Funding Shortfall after Debt Financing (HK$112.8 Billion – HK$11 Billion)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
HKIA MASTER PLAN 2030
2030
About HK$11 Billion Additional Debt (Less Interest Expense)
49
|