AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST Figure 3.5 400 300 200 100 0 GPRD Airports Passenger and Cargo Traffic Forecast millions of tonnes Forecast CAGR 2008-2030 Passenger/Cargo = 5.9% 20 15 10 5 0 2004 2008 Cargo 2015 2020 2025 2030 millions of passenger trips Actual AVIATION MARKET OUTLOOK : THE MAINLAND AND GPRD IATA Consulting forecasts that air traffic to and from the Mainland will reach nearly 2.1 billion trips by 2030, while cargo traffic will reach 44 million tonnes. This projection is supported by a number of observations. On the passenger side, the World Tourism Organisation forecasts that the Mainland will become the world’s fourth-largest tourist source market and the largest domestic tourist market by 2015. The Mainland’s GDP per capita will reach approximately US$14,000 in 20305, and as the economy grows, the desire and ability of the people on the Mainland to travel both domestically and internationally will grow rapidly. The Mainland is also the manufacturing capital of the world, and its cargo must be delivered to their overseas destinations around the world. Rising foreign direct investment, improving living standards, more liberal trade policies and a growing express cargo and logistics sector support a robust cargo growth projection. Also, cargo traffic of Mainland airports has increased by a CAGR of over 10% each year in the past decade, reaching 9.5 million tonnes in 2009. The Mainland’s substantial trade volume and growing economy will be key factors in its cargo growth. The Pearl River Delta (PRD)6 – HKIA’s catchment area – is one of the Mainland’s most diverse and fastest growing regions. It is one of the Mainland’s centres of manufacturing and most affluent areas. With the Passenger Note: GPRD airports include Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Macao and Zhuhai airports Source: Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), AAHK for actual figures, IATA Consulting forecast Figure 3.6 Five Major GPRD Airports Guangzhou Shenzhen Hong Kong Macao Zhuhai Landsat-7 Satellite Image provided by Geocarto 5 6 World Bank, IATA Consulting estimates based on Global Insight. The PRD comprises Dongguan, Foshan, Guangzhou, Huizhou, Jiangmen, Shenzhen, Zhaoqing, Zhongshan and Zhuhai. 16