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Figure
7.3
Summary of the Economic Impact Analysis
2030 2008 (Actual) Option 1 (Two Runways)
HK$120 billion 3.3% 101,000 143,000
Option 2 (Three Runways)
HK$167 billion 4.6% 141,000 199,000
Economic contribution (Direct + Indirect + Induced) % of GDP Direct employment Indirect + induced employment
HK$78 billion 4.6% 62,000 124,000
2012-2061
7
ENPV
–
HK$432 billion
HK$912 billion
COMPARISON BETWEEN THE TWO OPTIONS
around 4.6% of the Hong Kong’s GDP forecast for 2030 (compared to 4.6% in 2008). Direct employment associated with HKIA would reach 141,000 and indirect and induced employment would increase to about 199,000 by 2030. The ENPV up to 2061 under Option 2 is estimated to be HK$912 billion22.
Summary
Figure 7.3 provides a summary of the economic impact analysis. Option 1 is no doubt a less expensive option in terms of capital investment and would bring about an ENPV of HK$432 billion. Option 2, however, has a projected ENPV of
HK$912 billion and is a “front-loaded” investment that is projected to generate a much higher value added in the long term. Between the two options, Option 2 brings a substantially higher economic contribution in the long term (a difference of HK$480 billion in ENPV) and
22
In 2009 dollars.
HKIA MASTER PLAN 2030 43
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