7 COMPARISON BETWEEN THE TWO OPTIONS Figure 7.1 Cost and Benefit Flows of Option 1 Economic Impact of Option 1 (Two Runways) ESA estimates that the direct, indirect and induced contribution of HKIA to Hong Kong’s GDP in 2030 under this option would be HK$120 billion16, equivalent to around 3.3% of Hong Kong’s GDP forecast for 2030 (compared to 4.6% in 2008). Direct employment would be increased from 62,000 in 2008 to 101,000 in 2030. Indirect and induced employment would be increased from 124,000 in 2008 to 143,000 in 2030. With the given construction costs under this option17, and the corresponding stream of additional traffic up to 2061 (a 50-year life span is assumed for infrastructure), the ENPV18 is estimated to be HK$432 billion19. The foregone economic benefits due to constrained passenger and cargo throughput will in turn translate into lower economic contribution of the airport and its associated industries, and the ripple effect would ultimately affect the GDP growth in Hong Kong. in HK$ billion 80 ENPV = HK$432 Billion 60 40 20 0 -20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Benefits (Direct + Indirect + Induced) Construction Costs Net Note: ENPV is calculated based on 50-year return (till 2061) and discount rate of 4% which is used generally for Government infrastructure projects. Benefits are measured in value added. For simplicity, graph illustrates cash flow up to 2030 only. Source: Enright, Scott & Associates Ltd Figure 7.2 80 Cost and Benefit Flows of Option 2 in HK$ billion ENPV = HK$912 Billion 60 40 20 0 -20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Benefits (Direct + Indirect + Induced) Construction Costs Net Economic Impact of Option 2 (Three Runways) ESA estimates that given the higher construction costs under this option20, the direct, indirect and induced contribution to Hong Kong’s GDP in 2030 would be HK$167 billion21, equivalent to Note: ENPV is calculated based on 50-year return (till 2061) and discount rate of 4% which is used generally for Government infrastructure projects. Benefits are measured in value added. For simplicity, graph illustrates cash flow up to 2030 only. Source: Enright, Scott & Associates Ltd 16 17 18 In 2009 dollars. Cost details are in Chapter 5. ENPV refers to the difference between the present value of the future economic benefits from an investment and the present value of the investment amount. In 2009 dollars. Cost details are in Chapter 6. In 2009 dollars. 19 20 21 42