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AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST
into account various aspects of HKIA’s market environment, such as industry trends, regional market dynamics, changes in policies and so on, IATA Consulting estimates that air traffic demand forecasts for HKIA will fall within the range of 89 – 105 million passengers and 8 – 9.8 million tonnes of cargo by 2030, growing at respective CAGRs of 2.8% – 3.6% and 3.7% – 4.6% between 2008 and 2030. Flight movements will reach about 550,000 – 650,000, growing at a CAGR of 2.8% – 3.6%. The IATA Consulting analysis included, among other things, a “reality check” of its traffic forecast against the projections of the global aircraft manufacturing industry, which are considered to be particularly relevant. Traffic forecasts from both Boeing and Airbus indicate that over
Figure
3.13
Traffic Forecasts from Boeing and Airbus
Boeing Airbus
CAGR 2009-2028
Asia Pacific Region Passenger Cargo China Passenger Cargo World Passenger Cargo
6.3% 6%
6.1% 6.3%
7.6% 6.6%
7.3% 7.8%
4.7% 5.2%
4.5% 5%
the next 20 years, global passenger and cargo traffic will each grow at around 5% a year. Asia Pacific – driven by the Mainland – will see even higher growth, at about 6%, due to the region’s development potential. These projections have
already taken into account the recent financial and economic events of 2008-2009. They also acknowledge the traditional resilience of air travel to external shocks and the strong long-term fundamentals of the industry.
HKIA MASTER PLAN 2030 21
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