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AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST
continuous growth in trade and in the overall economy, IATA Consulting estimates that the aviation market in the Greater PRD (GPRD)7 will grow to 387 million passenger trips and 18 million tonnes of cargo by 2030 (see Figure 3.5). Within the GPRD, there are five major airports, namely, HKIA, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, Macao International Airport and Zhuhai Airport (see Figure 3.6). Having taken into account the anticipated increase in the handling capacity of the five airports in the next 20 years, IATA Consulting forecasts that there would still be a significant unfulfilled demand for air services both in the medium term up to 2020 and in the long term up to 2030 (see Figure 3.7).
Figure
3.7
GPRD Airports Capacity and Forecast Passenger Demand (2020 and 2030)
Annual Passenger Demand by 2030 – 387 Million
Unfulfilled Demand – 147 Million
Annual Passenger Demand by 2020 – 233 Million
(in passenger trips) Unfulfilled Demand – 33 Million
Anticipated Annual Handling Capacity of GPRD Airports – 200 Million*
Anticipated Annual Handling Capacity of GPRD Airports – 240 Million*
* For HKIA, the capacity assumed is 60 million based on completion of the committed Midfield Phase 1 Development Source: CAAC, IATA Consulting analysis and estimates
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The Greater PRD comprises PRD plus Hong Kong and Macao.
HKIA MASTER PLAN 2030 17
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