AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST 3.10 thousands 700 600 500 400 300 200 2008 Figure HKIA Air Traffic Movement Projection (Up to 2030) CAGR 2008-2030 2015 362 347 332 2020 448 421 394 2025 548 509 470 2030 652 602 552 thousands High Base Low 3.6% 3.2% 2.8% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Low Base High Source: IATA Consulting estimates; AAHK statistics for actual figures 3.11 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2008 Figure HKIA Passenger Traffic Projection (Up to 2030) CAGR 2008-2030 3.6% 3.2% 2.8% millions of passenger trips millions of passenger trips 2015 High Base Low 59 57 54 2020 72 68 64 2025 88 82 76 2030 105 97 89 2030 Low Base High Source: IATA Consulting estimates; AAHK statistics for actual figures 3.12 10 Figure HKIA Cargo Traffic Projection (Up to 2030) CAGR 2008-2030 4.6% 2015 4.7 4.4 4.2 2020 6.1 5.7 5.2 2025 7.9 7.2 6.5 2030 9.8 8.9 8.0 millions of tonnes millions of tonnes High Base Low 4.2% 3.7% 8 6 convenient and frequent link-up to second-tier and third-tier locations outside major cities, thus potentially enlarging the catchment area for HKIA. Experiences in Europe and Japan indicate that the introduction of high-speed rail may negatively affect short-haul and overlapping markets but it can increase people’s willingness to travel and, in the medium to long term, increase the overall market size for both rail and air transportation, thereby compensating (or, as in most cases, over-compensating) for the potential air traffic loss on individual short-haul routes. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 4 2030 2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Low Base High AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST According to the GDP regression based forecasting model, and taking Source: IATA Consulting estimates; AAHK statistics for actual figures 20