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AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST
3.10
thousands 700 600 500 400 300 200 2008
Figure
HKIA Air Traffic Movement Projection (Up to 2030)
CAGR 2008-2030
2015 362 347 332 2020 448 421 394 2025 548 509 470 2030 652 602 552
thousands High Base Low
3.6% 3.2% 2.8%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Low
Base
High
Source: IATA Consulting estimates; AAHK statistics for actual figures
3.11
110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2008
Figure
HKIA Passenger Traffic Projection (Up to 2030)
CAGR 2008-2030 3.6% 3.2% 2.8%
millions of passenger trips
millions of passenger trips 2015 High Base Low 59 57 54 2020 72 68 64 2025 88 82 76 2030 105 97 89
2030
Low
Base
High
Source: IATA Consulting estimates; AAHK statistics for actual figures
3.12
10
Figure
HKIA Cargo Traffic Projection (Up to 2030)
CAGR 2008-2030 4.6%
2015 4.7 4.4 4.2 2020 6.1 5.7 5.2 2025 7.9 7.2 6.5 2030 9.8 8.9 8.0
millions of tonnes
millions of tonnes High Base Low
4.2% 3.7%
8
6
convenient and frequent link-up to second-tier and third-tier locations outside major cities, thus potentially enlarging the catchment area for HKIA. Experiences in Europe and Japan indicate that the introduction of high-speed rail may negatively affect short-haul and overlapping markets but it can increase people’s willingness to travel and, in the medium to long term, increase the overall market size for both rail and air transportation, thereby compensating (or, as in most cases, over-compensating) for the potential air traffic loss on individual short-haul routes.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
4
2030
2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Low
Base
High
AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST
According to the GDP regression based forecasting model, and taking
Source: IATA Consulting estimates; AAHK statistics for actual figures
20
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