COMPARISON BETWEEN THE TWO OPTIONS Chapters 5 and 6 discuss two very different approaches in planning the future development of Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) in the next 20 years. They have their respective pros and cons. A detailed comparison between the two options against key considerations is discussed below. to an airport with great connectivity would benefit from a wider range of services and frequency. It is widely recognised that air connectivity plays a crucial role in attracting foreign business. Moreover, the availability of air freight services further facilitates trade by enabling businesses to operate in the most flexible and time-sensitive manner. Global connectivity is particularly important to those sectors characterised by internationalised, high-value products and services, that are also dependent on mobile workforces and face-to-face relations. Among them are financial and business services, which are the cornerstone of Hong Kong’s economy. As Hong Kong’s air connectivity increases, it in turn makes Hong Kong more attractive to foreign investment and increases the potential for business efficiency, ultimately generating a virtuous cycle of connectivity and economic growth. Hence, in comparing the two options, air connectivity is one of the most critical considerations. According to International Air Transport Association (IATA) Consulting’s forecast, Option 1 can only meet the unconstrained demand for air traffic of Hong Kong up to 2020 (base case), at which time the maximum runway capacity would be reached. Should that happen, the following changes in air traffic pattern would likely occur, as experienced by both Kai Tak and overseas airports such as Heathrow – (a) Once all available slots were taken up, it would be impossible for existing operators to introduce new destinations or additional frequency on existing routes except for substituting existing flights. This will put a halt to the growth of our aviation network and remove the room for introducing competition on existing routes; (b) With slots at a premium, airlines may deploy bigger aircraft, use available slots for lucrative routes instead of the less profitable ones. This would gradually reduce the frequency of less profitable routes and may eventually eliminate them from our network. The reduction in frequency would result in longer connecting time; and the shrinking network, in less choices and higher prices on most routes. The higher yield origin-and-destination CONSIDERATION 1 : AIR CONNECTIVITY Air connectivity is essential for Hong Kong to maintain its attractiveness as an international business hub as well as competitiveness on the global economic and financial stage. Air connectivity is commonly defined by the number of destinations served and the frequency of flights along each of those routes. The better HKIA is connected to the world, the greater the frequency of services it could offer, resulting in more reliable air services and a lower threshold for opening new routes. With every new flight it adds to its network, HKIA’s connectivity will be further enhanced. Passengers, particularly business travellers, who have access 38