7 COMPARISON BETWEEN THE TWO OPTIONS Figure 7.4 Breakdown of Airport Island Employment in 2010 Managerial 5.2% Manual/Low-Skilled 19.5% Professional 17.9% Skilled 57.4% Source: HKIA Workforce Survey 2010 Definitions: Manual/Low-Skilled: Jobs involving simple and routine tasks carried out often with some physical effort and help of hand-held tools. Skilled: Jobs requiring special knowledge and skills acquired through training in order to perform well. Professional: Jobs requiring qualifications and knowledge of a specialised field. Managerial: Jobs which are responsible for the management of a section, department, division or a company in the achievement of organisation objectives. provides a significantly greater boost to local employment. One important aspect of the economic analysis that deserves particular attention is the gradual decrease of HKIA’s economic contribution as a percentage of Hong Kong’s GDP under Option 1 (below the 2008 level). As Hong Kong’s economy continues to grow, it is obvious that Option 1 does not allow HKIA to grow in tandem due to its constrained capacity23. In addition, constrained capacity is likely to affect air connectivity. Experience in Heathrow bears this out clearly: In 1990, Heathrow ranked second among airports in Europe, after Frankfurt, in the number of destinations served, but as its capacity became constrained, it slipped to seventh in 2010 behind Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam, Munich, Rome and Madrid24. 23 Between the two options, Option 2 would provide substantially more direct jobs than Option 1 (141,000 jobs under Option 2 vis-à-vis 101,000 jobs under Option 1). Further to the ESA analysis, we have surveyed nearly 400 different companies and organisations operating on the airport island in 2010. Of the 65,000 people employed, around 20% of the employment belongs to manual/lowskilled jobs. According to returns from the survey, it is anticipated that roughly 50% of the new jobs created under both Options 1 and 2 would be manual/low-skilled jobs. As Hong Kong is currently in need of employment opportunities for manual/low-skilled labour, the expansion of HKIA would contribute towards filling this gap. CONSIDERATION 3 : CONSTRUCTION COST The construction cost estimates are supported by the preliminary engineering feasibility assessment conducted, with approximate work quantity measured to the level of design details available and costs per unit of construction floor areas benchmarked with existing similar projects on the airport island. Option 2 costs considerably more than Option 1 (estimated at HK$86.2 billion vis-à-vis HK$23.4 billion in 2010 dollars or HK$136.2 billion vis-à-vis HK$42.5 billion at money-of-the-day [MOD] prices) as the former entails a sizeable reclamation and extensive airport ancillary facilities required to efficiently integrate the third runway with the rest of the airport. The comparison of the projected economic impact of the two options was made against independently forecast GDP figures. Such figures have not been adjusted to take into account potential slower economic growth in Option 1 than in Option 2. Strategy: Process, Content, Context, An International Perspective by Bob De Wit, Ron Meyer, 4th Edition. 24 44