Figure 3.8 Chinese Railway Infrastructure Development Map 3 AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST Legend ( ) Beijing (8 hrs) Major Mainland Cities connected to Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link Beijing-Guangzhou Passenger Line and Hangzhou-Fuzhou-Shenzhen Passenger Line ( ) Zhengzhou (6 hrs) Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link Other Proposed Passenger Line ( ) Xi’an (8 hrs) ( ) Chengdu (12 hrs) ( ) Wuhan (4 hrs) ( ) Nanjing (5 hrs) ( ) Shanghai (6 hrs) “9+2” Pan-Pearl River Delta Region “9+2” Area ( ) Hangzhou (7 hrs) ( ) Chongqing (10 hrs) ( ) Changsha (3 hrs) ( ) Nanchang (5 hrs) ( ) Fuzhou (5 hrs) g Hangzhou-FuzhouShenzhen Passenger Line Beijing-Guangzhou Beijing Guangzhou Passenger Line ( ) Nanning (4 hrs) ) Kunming (8 hrs) ( ) Xiamen (4 hrs) ( ) Shantou (2 hrs) Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link Source: Transport and Housing Bureau Rail Link (XRL) connecting Hong Kong to the Mainland’s high-speed train network, and further expansion of the high-speed rail network within the Mainland (see Figure 3.8), the high-speed rail could potentially affect the competitiveness of air travel between Hong Kong and short-haul Mainland destinations like Shantou, Changsha, Nanning, Xiamen, Wuhan, Nanjing, Nanchang and Fuzhou (see Figure 3.9). However, all these regional Mainland routes combined contributed only about 3% of HKIA’s passenger throughput in 2010. Therefore, any negative impact from XRL would unlikely be significant. On the other hand, trains provide Figure 3.9 Projected High-Speed Rail Travel Time versus Air Travel Time from Hong Kong in 2020 hours 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Xiamen Wuhan Nanchang Shantou Changsha Nanning Nanjing Fuzhou Shanghai Hangzhou Xi’an Kunming Beijing Chongqing Zhengzhou Chengdu Train Faster than Plane Plane Faster than Train Train Noncompetitive Train Air Note: Air travel time includes an additional three-hour dwell and access time on top of the flight duration. Source: IATA Consulting estimates, Transport and Housing Bureau HKIA MASTER PLAN 2030 19